Network World, 01/04/99

Let's start at the desktop, and what else would that mean but a look at Microsoft and its dominant Windows operating system.

Government interference aside, the biggest battle Microsoft will face in 1999 involves its own technology. The company is working hard to convince customers that Windows NT Workstation is a better corporate choice than the six-month-old Windows 98.

Microsoft is advising customers to bypass upgrading Windows 95 machines to Windows 98 in favor of Windows NT Workstation 4.0. That move will provide the smoothest upgrade path to Windows 2000 Professional, the formerly named NT Workstation 5.0 software due to hit the streets sometime during 1999, says Mike Nash, director of marketing for

Windows NT Server and infrastructure products at Microsoft.

While Windows 98 sales surpassed Microsoft's expectations by hitting the 10 million mark, NT Workstation shipments weren't too shabby either; they've hit 20 million. More importantly, 40% of all the Windows desktop machines going to corporate sites are loaded with NT. Nash expects that figure will reach at least 50% in 1999.

Windows - whatever flavor - certainly dominates the desktop, but it's not the only software in town. For example, the public-domain Linux operating system is garnering considerable attention these days.

Some corporate users are taking a closer look at Linux as a viable alternative to Windows NT, but they're more curious about the Internet-controlled free operating system than anything else.

Desktop applications drive desktop operating system adoption, says Dwight Davis, service director for Summit Strategies, a consulting firm in Kirkland, Wash. "And Microsoft Office, the most widely used desktop productivity suite, isn't going to be ported to Linux any time soon," he says.

Predictions: Microsoft will keep pushing corporate buyers toward NT Workstation 4.0 and Windows 2000 Professional. Then, after the company ships Windows 2000, it'll merge its two desktop operating systems - Windows and Windows NT.

In the meantime, Linux will gather more momentum, but in big enterprise environments it will stay mostly a water cooler topic.