Tallying up 2009 predictions

Looking back on a year of gradual evolution for unified communications and convergence products and services

VoIP, unified messaging, products and services

Today, we'll look back at the predictions we made a year ago to see how close we came with expectations for 2009, and in a week we'll look forward with some predictions for 2010. As we look back on 2009, we must admit it was filled with some pretty big surprises such as the breakup and sale of Nortel and the renewed FCC focus on net neutrality. But as we predicted 2009 was largely a year of gradual evolution for unified communications and convergence products and services.

We predicted 12 months ago that infrastructure suppliers would focus on execution and be less attentive to innovation in 2009, and we think this has largely been true. Looking back we have also been pleasantly surprised at the continued stream of product upgrades and new releases from almost every company we cover along with ongoing collaborative efforts between, for example, Skype and IP-PBX suppliers.

We predicted growth in VoIP and UC systems in the small/midsize business market. While we haven't seen anything dramatic here, we have seen increased focus and some success on hosted services offered to the SMB -- especially by competitive carriers including the cable companies.

To continue reading, register here and become an Insider. You'll get free access to premium content from CIO, Computerworld, CSO, InfoWorld, and Network World. See more Insider content or sign in.

Today, we'll look back at the predictions we made a year ago to see how close we came with expectations for 2009, and in a week we'll look forward with some predictions for 2010. As we look back on 2009, we must admit it was filled with some pretty big surprises such as the breakup and sale of Nortel and the renewed FCC focus on net neutrality. But as we predicted 2009 was largely a year of gradual evolution for unified communications and convergence products and services.

We predicted 12 months ago that infrastructure suppliers would focus on execution and be less attentive to innovation in 2009, and we think this has largely been true. Looking back we have also been pleasantly surprised at the continued stream of product upgrades and new releases from almost every company we cover along with ongoing collaborative efforts between, for example, Skype and IP-PBX suppliers.

We predicted growth in VoIP and UC systems in the small/midsize business market. While we haven't seen anything dramatic here, we have seen increased focus and some success on hosted services offered to the SMB -- especially by competitive carriers including the cable companies.

As we expected for 2009, IP-Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) growth and innovation languished as service providers try to figure out deployments on an "application at a time" basis; however, we are pleased to report that AT&T is using IMS for its U-verse voice offer and other applications such as caller ID on the TV screen.

We had hoped infrastructure suppliers would show some 4G applications innovation but disappointingly, enterprise-focused 4G solutions have either escaped our notice or they don't exist. We did, howeve, see some progress by Clearwire and its partners to build out WiMAX 4G networks: Clearwire's 4G network is expected to be available by year-end in more than 25 markets covering more than 30 million people, according to the company.

Perhaps the most dramatic convergence and VoIP story of the year was Avaya's purchase of Nortel's Enterprise Solutions business unit, fulfilling our prediction about 2009 industry consolidation. Despite all the 2009 financial turmoil at Nortel, the company's product development was able to launch a series of upgrades across the portfolio-- progress that bodes well for customers who had invested in the Nortel portfolio.

Next week, we'll take a stab at predicting VoIP and Convergence trends for 2010.

Read more about voip & convergence in Network World's VoIP & Convergence section.

Steve Taylor is president of Distributed Networking Associates and publisher/editor-in-chief of Webtorials. Larry Hettick is a principal analyst at Current Analysis.