Public access doom and gloom?

One of my theories on the wireless movement has hit a couple of potholes.

My theory is that for strict data transfer and Internet access (let's forget about voice for the time being), the wireless LAN movement could end up "competing" with wireless WAN technologies (especially 3G), and could potentially prevail. Here are my reasons:

1. Wireless LAN technology (802.11b) will be ubiquitous in the enterprise. And as companies give wireless LAN PC cards to their employees, those employees will begin to use them at home.

2. Wireless WAN technology (all the 3G flavors) is at least one year away in the U.S. Even with Code Division Multiple Access 1X-RTT networks launching next year, it's a slow process.

3. Mobility, schmobility. For data transfer, most users still use notebooks and maybe PDAs. Heavy notebooks will be used only in limited locations, such as airport lounges, hotels and other public spaces. If you throw a Wi-Fi access point into your coffee shop and connect to a broadband connection, users will use it to get their e-mail or surf the Internet.

It's not a perfect theory, by any means. Here are the first potholes. According to a recent Network World story (www.nwfusion.com/news/2001/1022starbucks.html), two leading providers of Internet access to the hospitality industry, MobileStar Network and Ardent Communications, have failed. Their failure has left big-name hotel and retail chains (like Hilton Hotels and Starbucks Coffee) with no connections for their customers.

Analysts are blaming the failures on the downturn in capital markets, as well as a sharp decline in travel and entertainment activity due to the heightened terrorist threat, but there were some other warning signs as well.

For example, many of the companies installing wireless LANs in airports have had to deal with local airport boards or authorities. Even before the Sept. 11 attacks, this was a lengthy project. Getting airports wired for Internet access has definitely taken a backseat to other projects.

And the industry still needs to settle issues on roaming, which would enable a user of one service to log onto another network without having an account from that network's provider. The second network would then be able to bill the first one for the time used, and so on, ultimately providing the end user with just one bill.

Additionally, security remains a concern, especially with 802.11b and its well-publicized wireless encryption protocol authentication problems. In a public access situation, the authentication needs to be turned off due to the end user not knowing the access point's authentication key.

Still, I contend that my theory about wireless LANs as an alternative to 3G wireless WANs is solid (again, I'm only talking about data - voice is another playing field).

I think this market will end up similar to the broadband industry. Small players test out the water, spend all of their money, go bankrupt and then get bought by larger fish or remain small niche players. Bigger companies with more cash (AT&T, Verizon) pick up the pieces and develop the market without fear of competition from the smaller companies. Large hotel chains and large retail chains tend to prefer playing with bigger companies that won't leave them hanging with a lot of T-1 lines and access points, but no service.

I'm optimistic about public access wireless LANs, if only because I want to end the tyrannical rule of hotels when it comes to charging me $1 or more per local phone call to connect to the Internet. While it may mean that I pay a per day access fee for higher-speed Internet access, I will still be happy about not paying the local phone call charge.

Let me know what you think. Have I lost my marbles? Send your theories on public wireless LAN access to kshaw@nww.com

Keith Shaw is Reviews Editor at Network World. In addition, he writes the "Cool Tools" column, which looks at gizmos, gadgets and other mobile computing devices.

You can reach Keith at kshaw@nww.com.

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