FMC ramp-up could take a while

Researcher predicts moderate near-term adoption

Industry analysis by expert Joanie Wexler, plus links to the day's wireless news headlines

Though it predicts substantial near-term growth in the number of Unlicensed Mobile Access (UMA) and dual-mode mobile service subscribers, Pyramid Research maintains a modest outlook on the overall adoption of fixed-mobile convergence, or FMC, for the next few years.

UMA technology is one platform for delivering FMC network services that span different underlying network types without interrupting user sessions. Used in commercial services from BT in the U.K. and in trials by T-Mobile, UMA allows subscribers to access their GSM-based cellular network services through an unlicensed wireless access network, such as Wi-Fi. Handsets from Motorola, Nokia and Samsung are UMA-compliant today.

In a report published earlier this month, Pyramid predicted that UMA and dual-mode subscribers would quadruple this year from fewer than 400,000 in 2006. It also forecast that the number of FMC users is likely to reach 18 million in 2011.

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Though it predicts substantial near-term growth in the number of Unlicensed Mobile Access (UMA) and dual-mode mobile service subscribers, Pyramid Research maintains a modest outlook on the overall adoption of fixed-mobile convergence, or FMC, for the next few years.

UMA technology is one platform for delivering FMC network services that span different underlying network types without interrupting user sessions. Used in commercial services from BT in the U.K. and in trials by T-Mobile, UMA allows subscribers to access their GSM-based cellular network services through an unlicensed wireless access network, such as Wi-Fi. Handsets from Motorola, Nokia and Samsung are UMA-compliant today.

In a report published earlier this month, Pyramid predicted that UMA and dual-mode subscribers would quadruple this year from fewer than 400,000 in 2006. It also forecast that the number of FMC users is likely to reach 18 million in 2011.

The reason for the conservative FMC predictions despite anticipated high growth is that age-old snag: doubling, tripling, or quadrupling a virtually nonexistent number implies a big increase, percentage-wise, but doesn’t add up to all that many overall. For example, the report forecast that global revenue from FMC will grow from about $130 million in 2006 to nearly $9 billion in 2011. However, the firm predicts that figure to account for only 1.9% of the total mobile demand at that time.

FMC demand among business customers exists, according to the researchers, yet it cites the nascent state of IP Multimedia Subsystem (IMS) technology, which will be used to deliver future FMC business services, as holding things up.

Alternatively, early enterprise-based FMC platforms are emerging. A few months ago, start-up DiVitas Networks began shipping an appliance and associated client software to enable enterprises to install and manage their own FMC capabilities. Meanwhile, in March, Cisco launched its Unified Mobile Communicator, which provides employees with cellular access to their enterprise PBXs, directories, and messaging services from a diverse set of mobile phones and smart phones.

Read more about wireless & mobile in Network World's Wireless & Mobile section.

Joanie Wexler is an independent networking technology writer/editor in Silicon Valley.