While industry pundits can dispute which company - AT&T, Sprint
or WorldCom - is in worse shape, the fact is each has a big cross to
bear: consumer voice.
The question is whether these companies bounce back with their current
leadership. Its highly probable that at least one of the three
CEOs will be ousted. Heres what you can expect:
WorldCom, like competitor AT&T, is restructuring. The company will
squarely focus on building business service revenue, while spinning
its declining consumer division into a separate unit with its own tracking
stock called MCI. The network assets and high-growth business services
will operate under the WorldCom banner.
But the plan is flawed from a customer perspective. WorldCom made clear
it would not offer lower service rates to encourage long-term contracts.
So customers may not get the same cost-saving deals theyve come
to expect. Another problem is that WorldCom is not known for stellar
customer service. Ive talked with WorldCom customers who arent
sure who their sales representatives are or who are unhappy about services
not being delivered in a timely manner.
While WorldCom, AT&T and Sprint have to worry about shareholder
return and profits, I dont think there is a CEO in the industry
more blinded by the bottom line than WorldComs Bernie Ebbers.
Dont be surprised to see him part ways.
AT&T CEO C. Michael Armstrong might not be far behind. Armstrong
disappointed Wall Street and analysts when he announced his major restructuring
in October. He showed signs of weakness for the first time since his
risky acquisitions of TCI and MediaOne, according to one analyst.
Armstrong had always stuck to his guns in arguing that AT&Ts
cable acquisitions would pave the way to innovative services while letting
AT&T bypass incumbent local exchange carriers.
Now hes wavering, saying the companys decline in market
valuation has been nothing short of alarming.
Armstrong has said publicly he sees himself retiring after 2002, but
he may not last that long.
Sprints Bill Esrey has the best chance of making it through 2001,
to continue his 15-year reign as CEO. Sprint has not announced a restructuring
plan, but instead is trying to recover momentum after having lost precious
time trying to merge with WorldCom.
Sprints consumer voice business is not declining as fast as its
competitors. Also, Sprints wireless and Internet service
revenue grew by 50% in the third quarter of 2000 compared with the same
quarter of 1999. These are Sprints saving graces.
If Sprint can continue to post strong growth in Internet and wireless
while improving data service growth, Esreys position should be
secure.
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