Last year Phil Zweig needed to fill two critical roles in his IT organization at Northwestern Mutual - one in identity management and one in mainframe system support. Zweig, vice president of IT for the Milwaukee firm, began to get antsy when those slots had not been filled in the usual timeframe of two to three months. "It was taking us about five to six-plus months, double what I would like to see," he says.

In itself, that might not seem like a big deal, but Zweig has his eye on the bigger picture. As vice president of advocacy and communities of interest for the Society for Information Management (SIM), he heads up a research project that is examining the combined effects of radically dropping enrollment in IT programs at the undergraduate level and the first wave of baby boomer retirements. "Between the retirements that are coming and the reduction in computer science students, we're in a very difficult position," he says.

Zweig is part of a growing number of IT leaders who are concerned it will be increasingly difficult to find people with hot skills such as project management. Without enough future IT professionals in the pipeline - and with thousands of older employees leaving the workforce - the U.S. could be left high and dry when it comes to technology innovation. And that could sap economic growth.

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Gartner estimates six out of 10 corporate IT professionals will assume business-facing roles by 2010. By that same year, IT organizations at midsize and large companies will be at least one-third smaller than they were in 2000, according to Gartner. In five years, 10% to 15% of IT professionals will drop out of the field altogether, the firm forecasts. These predictions portend a clouded future for an important sector of the U.S. economy.

"Where will the next wave of technology creation come from? Will the U.S. be able to sustain its leadership? What will happen if there's no one left to hire here?" says Nancy Markle, past president of SIM and a current board member. Markle was previously a CIO at Arthur Anderson.

Declining enrollment

With the pain of the recession's widespread layoffs barely in the past, it is hard to believe an IT worker shortage could again be just around the corner. Five years ago, the business and technical press were full of stories about the lack of skilled IT professionals. The topic was a perennial favorite, right up until the economy tanked.