Top desktop players in five years

Experts say these firms are likely to play key roles in delivering the desktop of the future.

1. Microsoft. Microsoft will still be a big factor in 2013, because of its near-monopoly on the desktop OS and applications. Plus, it's recently made some astute acquisitions that line it up to be a strong player in virtualization. These include Calista, which works to streamline RDP to make it more efficient and virtual machine-ready, as well as Kidaro. "I just cannot envision a future that doesn't involve Windows applications – not in 2013," says Brian Madden. 

2. Google. If anyone has the resources to challenge Microsoft's dominance on the desktop, it's Google, experts say. "I think Google in five years will have a huge impact on how people use computing resources and information," James Gaskin says. "It has the resources, drive, intelligence and force of will to challenge Microsoft, and I think it will have a bigger impact than Microsoft by far." 

3. VMware. Right now, VMware has all the pieces in place to make true virtualized desktops, both offline and online, a reality. Its Achilles' heel, just like in the server virtualization arena, is Microsoft's stranglehold on the OS. "The reality is that VMware does amazing stuff and has great technology, but I think they'll be a has-been in five years," Madden says. "I think they'll have a market share problem, because everything VMware can do, Microsoft can do cheaper and better."

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