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Whatever happened to artificial intelligence?

The grand promise of intelligent machines underestimated the complexity of reproducing human cognition
By James E. Gaskin , Network World , 06/23/2008
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Artificial intelligence promised us great technology. But has it delivered?


See a slideshow of 10 examples of artificial intelligence.


Stanford University computer science professor John McCarthy coined the phrase in 1956 to mean "the science and engineering of making intelligent machines," In the early years of the artificial intelligence movement, enthusiasm ran high and artificial intelligence pioneers made some bold predictions.

In 1965, artificial intelligence innovator Herbert Simon said that "machines will be capable, within 20 years, of doing any work a man can do." 

Two years later, MIT researcher Marvin Minsky predicted, "Within a generation ... the problem of creating 'artificial intelligence' will substantially be solved."

Popular culture jumped onto the artificial intelligence bandwagon and gave us Rosie the Robot from the Jetsons, HAL from the movie 2001 and R2D2 from Star Wars.

Yet, here we are, decades later and what has artificial intelligence done for us lately? If you define artificial intelligence as self-aware, self-learning, mobile systems, then artificial intelligence has been a huge disappointment.

On the other hand, every time you search the Web, get a movie recommendation from NetFlix, or speak to a telephone voice recognition system, tools developed chasing the great promise of intelligent machines do the work. In other words, we may not have full-functioning robots that cater to our every need, but artificial intelligence is embedded in our everyday lives.

"Once tools get far enough out of the lab, they're no longer AI, just common computer science," says Professor George Luger of the University of New Mexico. "AI just went to work."

One of the biggest boosts to artificial intelligence is Moore's Law, because artificial intelligence needs CPU power. "It took 20 years to go from a 5MHz chip to a 500MHz chip, but only eight months after that to get to a 1GHz chip," says futurist Daniel Burrus, author of the best seller Technotrends: How to Use Technology to Go Beyond Your Competition and founder of Burrus Research.

"The new Sony Playstation came out a year ago," says Burrus, "but if it came out five years earlier it would be considered a supercomputer." Burrus likens the growth of processing power on a graph to a hockey stick. "In the 90s, the graph was still low. In 2000, the graph started up a little. In 2008, we're getting on the handle of the hockey stick."

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Comments (27)
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WHATEVER HAPPENED TO A.I., ANYWAY?By Faye_Kane_Homeless_Brain on August 10, 2008, 2:46 amSince the only graduate work I ever did was in A.I., I think I can reliably say that the "short answer" is twofold: 1) As the complexity of a problem increases...

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AIBy Anonymous on June 29, 2008, 4:37 amSome of the systems that claim to have elements of AI are based on statistical modelling and decision analysis. I dont think that is AI in the real sense. I think...

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Defining AIBy Mike Moxcey on June 27, 2008, 5:09 pmThe problem with Artifical Intelligence is that it almost means all things to all people. The original meaning of a machine doing stuff isn't actually intelligent....

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DefinitionBy Anonymous on June 27, 2008, 1:27 pmArtificial intelligence is still being researched and built upon. Novel Artificial Neural Networks are still being built to solve new classes of problems. The hardware...

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HTM is the futureBy Anonymous on June 26, 2008, 12:03 amGrammar checkers is not AI. They've never had a good definition of intelligent until recently with Jeff Hawkins work with HTMs, IMO. It IS fundmentally different,...

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