The more things change...
NetworkWorld.com, 05/04/06
Never one to go too far out on a limb, market tracker IDC has unveiled its "Top 10 Predictions for Telecommunications Infrastructure for 2006."
Among them, IDC believes a host of IT technologies -- such as ATCA, Linux, and service delivery platforms -- will transform and "supercharge" the telecommunications infrastructure by making it more efficient and able to deliver new applications faster.
How fast?
IDC believes it will take 10 years -- 10! -- for these IT technologies to seep into the telecom infrastructure due to the "highly specific nature" of the installed telecom infrastructure and the "high degree" of customization and integration required.
Among IDC's other predictions are that the next five years in the telecommunications industry will be about three key issues:
-- Restructuring the network to provide significant capital and operating expenditure savings;
-- Enabling the network to quickly and efficiently deliver a wealth of high-value business and consumer applications (see network transformation above);
-- Consolidation of wireline and wireless networks to deliver fixed/mobile convergence.
Five more years of these trends after five years of them already. Time to recharge the batteries in that crystal ball?
And here's a shocker: IDC predicts that IT vendors like Intel, IBM, HP, and Microsoft, are likely to compete and partner with traditional network equipment vendors, such as Lucent, Nortel, Alcatel, Motorola, Ericsson, and Siemens. Just like they've been competing and partnering with them for the past, oh, 15 years?
All in all, pretty safe bets. Maybe this industry doesn't move that fast after all...
-- Jim Duffy, jduffy@nww.com
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