What if wireless Ethernet becomes as ubiquitous as cell service?
By Joanie Wexler
Network World, 03/25/02
Gwenn fires up her laptop at the breakfast table and, through the wireless Wi-Fi Ethernet link in her house, logs on to the corporate VPN to check her e-mail before leaving for the airport. She'll get coffee at Starbucks, which has a public Wi-Fi service, and she figures she can run the numbers her boss is asking for and send them from there.
At the airport she logs on one last time before boarding the plane, downloads the PowerPoint slides she'll need for her presentation and double-checks the timing for the videoconference she intends to include in the presentation once she has a Wi-Fi link set up at the conference center in San Jose.
Welcome to the Wi-Fi reality waiting around the corner. Wireless LAN services are popping up in so-called "hot spots" across the country - airports, hotels, restaurants, cafés and convention centers.
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There are already a few thousand Wi-Fi-enabled locations worldwide, says Amy Cravens, an industry analyst at Cahners In-Stat. That's enough to whet user's appetites, but the number "won't really take off until most corporate environments have wireless LANs," she says.
However, the industry faces some serious issues that may stymie ubiquitous service, including:
Fragmentation among wireless LAN services. The services today are offered primarily by little-known wireless ISPs such as AirPath, Concourse Communications, Surf and Sip, and Wayport.
Lack of roaming agreements. The wireless ISPs only offer islands of wireless LAN connectivity.
Unproven business models. After Wi-Fi enabling several hundred Starbucks locations and other properties, MobileStar Network filed for bankruptcy late last year and sold its assets to VoiceStream. It is unclear how partners in Wi-Fi services can make money.
"The state of the hot-spot supply chain is a nightmare right now," says Ian Keene, vice president and chief analyst in the telecom practice at Gartner. "The business model was straightforward until last year. Then the property owners woke up and wanted control-and a share of the revenue."
Nonetheless, there is a Wi-Fi ground swell that is hard to mistake.
Wi-Fi drivers
As wireless LANs grow within corporations, the desire to extend support follows naturally. Cahners estimates that the number of 802.11-based access points shipped each year will nearly triple from 1.2 million in 2001 to 3.5 million in 2005. The firm expects yearly 802.11 network interface card (NIC) shipments to jump from 6.3 million last year to 19.4 million in 2005.
In fact, most of the major notebook computer makers ship products today with embedded 802.11 NICs. Combine that with the fact that Microsoft has embedded Wi-Fi capabilities into Windows XP and it is clear that, like it or not, there is a Wi-Fi user base growing up around you.
The XP operating system automatically searches for a Wi-Fi access point and, if it finds one, asks the user if he would like to use the service. "We had users signing up for our service before it was even announced," says Tim Barrett, vice president of AirPath.
Wi-Fi support can indeed draw business. Mark Hedley, CTO at hotelier Wyndham International, based in Dallas, says his company is "most certainly taking conference business away from other hotels" thanks to the 802.11 connectivity in 148 of its properties.
Wireless provider Wayport ate the up-front capital costs, Hedley says. "You won't likely see much more of that in the wake of the dot-com demise. At the time, everyone expected a 20% consumption rate, but it's actually been more like 2% to 4%."
Unified roaming
The biggest challenge for users now is lack of unified roaming. Users must subscribe to individual wireless ISPs in each area they frequent, making it not only inconvenient but also difficult for the corporate network group to track usage and billing.
The industry is trying to standardize a settlement process through which carriers would sort out who gets paid when a customer roams from one service area to another.
In the meantime, aggregators and clearinghouses are stepping in. They partner with multiple wireless LAN service providers, aggregate the players' networks to create a merged footprint and put a common brand on the services.
Wireless ISP aggregator Boingo, which launched its services in January, is "partnering with every Wi-Fi [wireless] ISP we can find to build out our network," says Christian Gunning, director of product management. "It is cost-prohibitive for a single carrier to be ubiquitous. But having a patchwork of [Wi-Fi] locations and different ways to authenticate themselves and log on is confusing and difficult for users."
Longtime IP remote-access players iPass and Gric - which aggregate and broker worldwide dial-up IP services - also have begun expanding their services to include wireless LAN offerings.
And where are the traditional carriers, ISPs and mobile network operators in all this? They're remaining mum, for the most part.
Even VoiceStream, the company that purchased MobileStar's assets, will only say that the 500 Starbucks stores and American Airlines Admirals Clubs that MobileStar serves remain connected - for now. A spokeswoman says it is too early to predict where VoiceStream will take its public Wi-Fi business next.
But word on the street is the big-name traditional carriers - including the likes of AT&T, WorldCom and Sprint - have something up their sleeves.
Wireless LAN equipment supplier Cisco says all the major carriers are looking at delivering wireless ISP services.
"We haven't announced formal relationships with any, but we are working with them all," says Kristine Stewart, director of market development in Cisco's worldwide marketing group.
That's one hint that, before you know it, your company's user population will be chanting for Wi-Fi support.
Wexler, a writer in Campbell, Calif., is author of Network World's "Wireless in the Enterprise" e-newsletter - joanie@jwexler.com.
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