Cisco forecasts fourfold Internet traffic growth

* Video traffic continues to be the most significant growth factor -- globally Internet video traffic will surpass peer-to-peer traffic by the end of 2010

Earlier this month, Cisco released the results of its annual "Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Forecast, 2009-2014," which projects that global Internet traffic will increase more than fourfold by 2014. The forecast, which focuses on both consumers and businesses, offers projections are based on Cisco's analysis and modeling of traffic, usage and device data from independent analyst sources. The forecast, inputs and methodology are validated by data provided by service providers globally.

Earlier this month, Cisco released the results of its annual "Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Forecast, 2009-2014," which projects that global Internet traffic will increase more than fourfold by 2014. The forecast, which focuses on both consumers and businesses, offers projections are based on Cisco's analysis and modeling of traffic, usage and device data from independent analyst sources. The forecast, inputs and methodology are validated by data provided by service providers globally.

The global online video community will include more than 1 billion users by the end of 2010. Video traffic continues to be the most significant growth factor -- globally Internet video traffic will surpass peer-to-peer traffic by the end of 2010. Video is projected to exceed 91% of global consumer IP traffic by 2014.

Business video conferencing is projected to grow 10-fold at a 57% compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2009 to 2014 -- nearly three times faster than the projected rate for overall business IP traffic. Web-based video conferencing is the fastest growing subcategory, with a projected CAGR of 183% 183 from 2009 to 2014.

IP traffic quadrupling by 2014: Cisco study

The report also offers regional IP traffic trends. According to the study, by 2014 North America will have the most IP traffic, followed closely by Western Europe. From 2009 through 2014, Latin America will be the fastest growing region (51% compounded annual growth rate or CAGR), followed by the Middle East and Africa (45% CAGR) and then Central Europe (38% CAGR).

Commenting on the trends in a statement, Pankaj Patel, senior vice president and general manager for Cisco's Service Provider Group said, "Service providers are faced with evolving bandwidth and scalability requirements as residential, business and mobile consumers continue to demonstrate a healthy appetite for advanced video services across a variety of networks and devices. IP networks must be intelligent and flexible enough to support this tremendous variety of traffic growth. The Cisco VNI Forecast offers a global snapshot of video's significance in our daily lives and signals the need for further network preparations to support the quadrupling of the Internet and the more than 1 billion online video users by 2014."

Our thanks to Cisco for sharing this valuable information and analysis. More on the VNI, including information on the methodology and more detailed results, is available here.   

Copyright © 2010 IDG Communications, Inc.

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