Another firm notes Ethernet switch share gains for Cisco rival Juniper

UBS says EX sales could grow 50% in 2010

Another Juniper watcher expects the Cisco rival to grab some Ethernet switching market share this year as sales of its EX line of switches ramp up. According to investment firm UBS, Juniper's EX revenue might grow 50% this year as users select an alternative to Cisco, HP ProCurve/3Com, Avaya/Nortel and everyone else in the market. 

Meanwhile, Juniper's SRX security gateway is also expected to ramp nicely in 2010 with 80% growth, according to UBS. 

These forecasts, coming just weeks ahead of when Juniper announces its fourth quarter 2009 results, are consistent with Oppenheimer & Co.'s expectations that Juniper will see an in-line-or-better performance from its enterprise business in Q4. UBS anticipates those kind of results for Juniper's entire business: 

We expect JNPR to report revs and EPS in-line or slightly better than our estimates  

of $882M (cons. $884M, guidance of $860-$895M) and $0.26 (cons. $0.25,

guidance of $0.23-$0.26). We believe JNPR saw strong demand from service

providers, particularly in the US, while also gaining market share in enterprise

switching in 4Q09. 

UBS notes (as did Oppenheimer), however, that carrier spending in 2010 will be tight and that carriers will opt for lower-priced Ethernet gear in their IP networks. UBS forecasts 13% growth in Juniper's carrier routing business - "which could be a bit high given these dynamics." To drive upside to 2010 revenue, Juniper will seek to gain more enterprise share, UBS predicts. 

For the full year 2010, UBS forecasts a 17% hike to Juniper revenue, to $3.8 billion. 2011 sales could climb another 15% to $4.4 billion, the firm estimates.

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