More Identity issues for 2010

* IdM leaders weigh in on mergers and acquistions in the near future

Today we'll get back to predictions for 2010 as offered to me by some of the leading lights of the IdM universe. You'll remember (I hope) that two issues ago we looked at predictions for identity and cloud computing, the most popular topic from my correspondents. The next most popular topic was mergers and acquisitions, with some surprising answers.

Sxippe founder, OpenID co-founder and current Microsoftie (as a "partner architect") Dick Hardt said, "No major acquisitions. A few new players, a few existing players will fold."

Quest's Jackson Shaw (a former Microsoftie) added: "Consolidation, by one or more of the platform vendors."

And Martin Kuppinger (Kuppinger Cole) chimed in with "I expect some interesting acquisitions especially in the areas of PAM [priveleged access management] and 'IAM for the cloud'."

Three fairly different prognoses, none of which caught the Gartner-Burton deal we talked about last week, but still food for thought. My personal opinion is that -- once the dust settles on the Oracle-Sun deal we'll see more M&A activity.

Courion's Chris Sullivan, by the way, took issue with the cloud computing prognostications of his peers. "2010 will not be about the cloud," he said. "We've been living in the clouds for years…weaving our customers' provisioning, access compliance and access assurance frameworks into those clouds. That's not interesting."

Other interesting tidbits about the near future included:

* "We think this market [identity as a service] will grow during 2010/2011." -- Jesper Thomo, Nordic Edge 

* "Most analysts groups will formally recognize privileged user management (PUM) [a.k.a. priveleged access management] as a separate and distinct market and the PUM market will in a few years be roughly one-third the size of the market for user provisioning. Similarly, IT professionals will increasingly recognize PUM solutions as effective protection and control over insider threats." -- Frank Cabri, Centrify Corporation  

* "Identity governance and risk management become the dominant factor in identity management purchasing decisions." -- Mark McClain, Sailpoint Technology  

* "Data governance and access governance start to converge. Organizations are starting to realize that resource-centric data governance ignores the business context of a user's relationship to an organization." -- Deepak Taneja, Aveksa 

Somewhat self-serving predictions, maybe, but each spoke about that area of the identity business that they were most familiar with. I will revisit these in a year so we can tell who has the real crystal ball and who is simply blowing smoke.

There's a few more I want to share with you, next time.

Learn more about this topic

Hot tech deals of 2009

Oracle-Sun union means tough decisions on ID management

Tech mergers and acquisitions to grow in 2010

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