When does Firefox really threaten IE?

Firefox has topped 10% in the latest browser market share report from Net Applications.

A year-and-a-half ago -- with Firefox at 6% -- I wrote a column entitled "Tugging at IE's pant leg," which started: "Bill Gates will hold a yard sale to help make ends meet before his company's Internet Explorer is displaced as the world's dominant Web browser."

Don't be looking for that yard sale any time soon.

But at what point -- what percentage share -- does Firefox transition from ankle-biter to leg-breaker? In other words, what is the magic number for Firefox to graduate from nuisance/media darling to a genuine threat to Microsoft's dominance of the browser market?

 I'm saying 20%. … Anyone want to offer a different number?

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