A scary Q1 for Microsoft could lie behind the Windows 7 hoopla

Analysis
Oct 22, 20093 mins

Microsoft will report financial results on Friday, could this be the last bad news for a while?

Microsoft will report financial results on Friday, could this be the last bad news for a while?

Today Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) released Windows 7 and Windows Server 2008 R2. Tomorrow it reports its Q1 2010 results and analysts are expecting the report to be ugly with big declines in both revenue and profit over the year ago quarter.

According to Yahoo Finance, analysts are expecting an average earnings per share of 32 cents compared to 48 cents for the year-ago quarter. Revenue is expected to slip by a whopping 17.9 percent over the same period, to $12.37 billion compared to $15.06 billion.

While Microsoft is still insanely profitable, and the slow economy has hurt Redmond just like it has hurt most other firms, there are some underlying trends that worry both analysts and investors.

For one, Gartner is reporting that PC shipments were actually surprisingly strong in the quarter — better than expected. They rose 0.5% over the same period last year, to 80.9 million units. This shocked even Gartner, who had previously forecasted a 5.6% decline, reports the Wall Street Journal.

Meanwhile, earlier this month Apple posted its most profitable quarter in history, largely due to Mac sales. Last month, Red Hat reported 12% revenue growth for its second quarter that ended August 31.

Microsoft’s hype machine over its next versions of products has served it well in the past — stalling out purchases of competitors’ products while customers wait to see what Microsoft will deliver. But in this case, it seems as if its hype machine really only hurts itself.

However, the hopes it pinned on Windows 7 may be more than justified. According to an e-mail sent to me by an Amazon PR spokesperson:

“Windows 7 has already surpassed pre-orders for Windows XP and Windows Vista combined, and now Windows 7-ready PCs are moving up the ranks on Amazon’s Bestsellers list for Computers & Accessories:

“As of noon PT today:

So we’ll see if Linus Torvalds will still be smiling when Microsoft reports it Q2 results or if will finally be Steve’s turn to grin.