Mobile upheaval seems the norm, not the exception
The news is only a day old, and already Google’s $12.5 billion proposed acquisition of handset maker and OEM partner Motorola Mobility has been analyzed six ways from Sunday.
Perhaps the wireless network ecosystem simply isn’t meant to settle down. We can continue to hope that enough commonality will eventually end up in the various mobile OSs, client hardware, network infrastructures, applications and app stores that the mobile Internet will “just work” regardless of what products and networks you use.
BACKGROUND: Google looks to protect Android with Motorola patents
However, we may be facing new interoperability islands. Analysts see further industry consolidation following the proposed Google-Moto deal, and consolidation has rarely boded positively for increased competition.
By purchasing one of its handset/hardware partners, Google is playing favorites and is at best snubbing its other Android OEMs. Jeff Kagan, an independent telecom analyst, postulates that perhaps Nokia and Microsoft or Samsung and HTC will be forced to merge, too, contributing to the market consolidation.
Google is also squarely taking on Apple to become the mobile top dog. Apple has created a mobile business model that has done astonishingly well despite the closed nature of the Apple ecosystem and the comparatively hefty price tags of its products. Heck, if it’s good enough for Apple …
We’ll have to wait and see what all the ripple effects of the union are. But in the short term, some speculate that the combination of the two powerhouses could ease the rampant patent infringement suits bogging down the wireless industry by putting the omnipotent Google back into the hardware/handset business and scaring off some litigators. And, of course, Google will acquire a number of Motorola Mobility patents with the deal.
And what of the continued openness of the Android operating system and the Federal Communications Commission’s vision of an “any device, any network” open mobile environment?
“Google will continue to claim the openness of Android as long as Motorola’s share is as small as it is now, as it will not want to antagonize its other Android partners,” says Stela Bokun, senior analyst/practice leader, mobile devices, in the London office of Pyramid Research.
“If you see Motorola growing market share rapidly, everything will be a fair game. In the meantime, you will likely see other Android partners hedging their bets and investing more in [Microsoft’s Windows Phone 7] than what was previously expected,” Bokun says, adding that she foresees “the probable consolidation of the market in the hands of several large players.”
So today’s market snapshot could change drastically over the next year. For now, according to Gartner research published last week, the second quarter of 2011 worldwide saw Android leading the mobile OS market with nearly 43% share (up from 17% a year ago), followed by Nokia Symbian at about 22% (down from 41% the previous year), Apple iOS at 18% (up from 14% last year) and Research In Motion’s BlackBerry at about 12% (down from 19% the previous year).
Hardware-wise, according to Gartner, Nokia was the leader in Q2 2011 worldwide sales with 23% of the device market, followed by Samsung at 16%, LG at 6% and Apple at 5%. Motorola, the researcher says, accounted for about 2.4% of worldwide mobile device sales. What that number will be next year is anyone’s guess.
