Growing pains ahead for wireless wide-area network ecosystem
For nearly 20 years, veteran wireless consultant and enthusiast Andy Seybold reported – and accurately so – that no wireless data network had ever been able to sustain itself financially without voice service subsidies.
It looks like the tide has finally turned.
Mobile data growth predictions for 2011 range from 41% to 166%, depending on source, region of the world, and whether you’re talking consumers, business users or both. Regardless, estimates indicate that 2011 will be the year mobile data finally overtakes voice and, like every dog, has its day.
Change will have to proliferate across all aspects of the mobile ecosystem, however, if user expectations are to be met. The “anywhere, anytime any device” mantra has the masses assuming that data experiences on mobile smartphones and tablet computers will mirror those on our PCs and cable TV. But it’s going to take some wizardry-behind-the-curtain to make that happen.
Also read: Gartner estimates nearly 20 million tablets to be sold in 2010
We’re already hearing reports about the significant 4G-to-3G handover delays in Verizon’s new LTE network. While the carrier has reportedly said the issue is being fixed, the challenge isn’t just about modems. The 3G and 4G network back ends are completely separate, and the handovers will cause delay and burn battery life until unified service provider network cores are in place.
And, unsurprisingly, the “looming spectrum crisis is our top, top priority for 2011,” says Amy Storey, a spokeswoman for CTIA-The Wireless Association, which represents mobile network operators.
And there’s even wired Internet capacity to worry about, too. These days, Seybold writes that Internet capacity is not being built out as fast as the demand for data is growing. He notes that service providers have meager incentive because there is little or no return on their investment, given today’s all-you-can-eat pricing.
Indeed, Businessweek reported last week that European phone operators France Telecom SA, Telecom Italia SpA and Vodafone Group Plc have flatly suggested that the large content-generating companies – the Googles, Apples and Facebooks of the world – pitch in to help pay for the capacity needed for their “bandwidth-hogging services.”
Yup, 2011 is shaping up to be a year worth watching – boxing gloves at the ready.
