Market is set to plunge for single-purpose camcorders
Cisco dumped Flip just as consumer attitudes toward single-purpose electronic devices was about to dive. Compounded annually, global camcorder shipment growth will only be 4.4% from 2010 to 2015 after 6.1% growth in 2010, according to market tracker IHS iSuppli.
The research firm found, as we and many others did, that the Flip was done in by HD video capabilities of smartphones and other Swiss army knife-like devices that do more than just one thing. Cisco didn’t even roll out the much anticipated WiFi-enabled Flip, which would have allowed users to upload videos to the ‘Net right after shooting them instead of attaching the videocam to a computer first and then uploading and sharing.
Reports are that Cisco killed Flip just before this capability was scheduled to become available. It would have made little difference. The die, quite literally, was already cast for Flip. According to IHS iSuppli:
“…consumers are becoming less interested in buying devices focused uniquely on taking such videos when this capability is increasingly available in other electronics systems already in the consumer’s pocket, purse, backpack or briefcase-such as a smart phone or personal media player. Because of this, over the next few years, there will be relatively little growth in the dedicated camcorder market, such as the Flip.”
Even that underwhelming 4.4% CAGR between 2010 and 2015 will be driven by 3D camcorders, not 2D versions like the Flip, IHS iSuppli says. And the numbers leading up to 2015 are even uglier. Camcorder shipments will decelerate to 4.1% in 2011 and then to 1.7% in 2012 and 2.2% in 2013, according to IHS iSuppli. Shipment growth will rebound somewhat in 2014 and 2015, though again, due predominantly to 3D devices.
But the underlying theme here is that people do not want a one trick pony taking up one of their pockets when their phone or other multipurpose device can do the same, and more. Even that personal media player (PMP) that can shoot video too is under attack:
The slowdown of the camcorder segment reflects wider challenges for all consumer electronics products that are focused on a single task.
“The single-task device is becoming an endangered species in the consumer electronics market. For example, the PMP is under increasing pressure from smart phones-and the e-Book reader market will encounter more competition from media tablets. The trend toward multi-tasking consumer electronics devices is one of the dominant forces shaping the industry, and Flip Video appears to be an early casualty.”
Nonetheless, Cisco left a pile of money on the table by just killing Flip instead of trying to sell it and at least attempt to recoup the almost $600 million it paid for it. And even though the market is moving away from single-purpose devices, there could be a phoenix rising from the Flip ashes sometime down the road, according to IHS iSuppli:
“It would not be surprising at all to see Flip resurrected in some fashion, however, with the assets perhaps reacquired by the founders or bought by another company at a steep discount. Despite Cisco’s actions and the overall market trend away from dedicated single-function devices like the Flip, the market has not gone away entirely and the value of a good product still remains strong.”
Maybe that good product value will be enhanced by the addition of WiFi…
More from Cisco Subnet:
HP “beat the crap” out of Cisco, others
Cisco, sources reveal data center next steps
Cisco’s ‘Jawbreaker’ seen as response to competitive pressure
Cisco grapples with transition as switches and routers lag
Cisco caught off guard by switching hit
Cisco switching transition “poorly managed and timed”
Should Cisco Sell?
FCoE: From fee to free
Cisco’s alright with free FCoE
Follow all Cisco Subnet bloggers on Twitter.Jim Duffy on TwitterFollow
