Will the Apple Tablet revolutionize tablet computers? Is it the Netbook killer?
Rumors about a possible (some say likely) Apple tablet are so intriguing because of Apple’s huge success with the iPhone. Gizmodo says its a 90% likelihood we’ll see an Apple Tablet within 4 months. One of the more recent debates is whether the tablet would be a MacBook Touch (based on Mac OS X) or an iTouch on steroids (iPhone OS). Bloggers are finding changes in the iPhone 3.0 OS that hint at prototypes and new products. Network World and CNN/Wired magazine also has a good writeup on all of the speculation. Why all the buzz about a tablet, a product category we’ve seen struggle and not really gained a huge foothold in the market? Two things: The iPhone and the Apple multi-touch interface. The iPhone’s success leads to obvious speculation about what’s next from Apple besides improvements to current product categories. The iPhone 3GS is a nice improvement over the iPhone 3G but what’s going to be the successor to the iPhone and iPod? When Apple introduced an incremental improvement to the iPhone 3G, speculation amped up even more so. Thus the overwhelming craze about a possible Apple Tablet. And that sets up expectations that Apple should or will remake the tablet market much like it’s done with SmartPhones and MP3 players. I wouldn’t be betting against Apple doing this either, though I believe they’ll be much more successful if the tablet is more iPhone than MacBook. More than anything else early in the iPhone’s product life, the new user interface built around multi-touch is what separated the iPhone from any other SmartPhones. The app store came later, accelerating the iPhone’s success. Other phones had touch screen interfaces, but they didn’t come close to what the iPhone did with multi-touch. So the question is, will the Apple Tablet be a better MacBook running Mac OS X with a multi-touch interface, or will it be more revolutionary or something that builds on the iPhone’s success?Overlooked in much of this debate is Windows 7’s multi-touch additions, something I’ve been anticipating ever since seeing it demonstrated on an HP TouchSmart computer at last year’s Microsoft PDC 2008. One of my business colleagues is now using Windows 7 on an HP TouchSmart tablet notebook. Very cool. But there hasn’t been much buzz around Windows 7’s multi-touch, in part because of all the negative Vista ground Windows 7 had to make up for, and that Windows 7’s biggest market is for use by current non-touch computers and notebooks.Apple’s Tablet brings up both a positive and a concern for Windows 7 multi-touch. The positive is that a successful Apple Tablet product could have long coattails, helping expand the interest and market for Windows 7 touch capable computers, laptops and possibly even Netbooks. (I’ll say more about this in a minute.) The concern is with the current hardware. Apple’s Tablet will likely be a thin, sexy tablet, not a laptop computer with a touchscreen interface. (Obviously, I’m speculating here, like everyone else, what the hardware form factor might be like). And a thin form factor will be in part what’s so appealing about an Apple Tablet. I’m very positive about HP’s TouchSmart desktop and laptop computers. They are at the beginning of a new wave of multi-touch computers, enabled by Windows 7 multi-touch support. But what we’re lacking is a thin, sexy model, that matches up well with what Apple could bring to market. Side-by-side, a multi-touch notebook and a thin Apple tablet, well… I think we’d agree about which is more likely to make a huge impact customers. Matter of fact, why hasn’t the PC market come out with a thin, Apple-like form factor multi-touch tablet to take advantage of the Windows 7? Apple could also cause disruption in the Netbook market. If you read my blog, you know I’m not too keen on NetBooks. My iPhone already does what they do and I think many users will find Netbooks too underpowered and too limiting. Anecdotally, that’s what I’ve heard from Netbook owners after the shine has worn off their new Netbook. While it will cost significantly more, I believe a successful Apple Tablet would attract buyers away from Netbooks to go with an Apple Tablet instead. That would certainly be my preference, if that Apple Tablet is anything like an iPhone. Windows 7’s multi-touch support may be its saving grace over other Netbook OS options, like Linux and Chrome OS, if the Netbook market were to take this kind of a turn. I’m pretty far out on a limb here, but I think all this is a likely scenario if the Apple Netbook becomes wildly successful.
Like this? Here are some of Mitchell’s recent posts.
Recent Podcasts:
- Is Open Source The Enemy Within Chipping Away at Proprietary Microsoft?
- The Hidden Cost of Out-of-Cycle Security Patches
- Apple Tablet – Expensive Netbook or iTouch on Steroids?
- Microsoft… Coming to a New Store Near You
- Did Microsoft Violate the GPL and Were They Forced To Make Linux Hyper-V Drivers GPL?
Mitchell’s book recommendations:
- Sam Ramji, Microsoft. Why Microsoft contributed to open source.
- Matt Brezina, Xobni. Xobni’s quest for revenue
Also visit Mitchell’s other blogs and podcasts:
- Beginning SharePoint 2007 Administration: Windows SharePoint Services 3.0 and Microsoft Office SharePoint Server 2007
- Beginning Ruby: From Novice to Professional, Second Edition
- Beginning C# 3.0: An Introduction to Object Oriented Programming
- Programming .NET 3.5
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