* Which network will dominate in 2011?
Last week, Insight Research released a report on how the future of telecommunications might evolve over the next five years. In the report, the firm concludes that today’s wireless, Internet and telephony networks may face some substantive changes, and that “there is a very real possibility that by the close of 2011 one of the three networks may come to dominate the others and thereby change the telecommunications revenue picture completely.”
Last week, Insight Research released a report on how the future of telecommunications might evolve over the next five years. In the report, the firm concludes that today’s wireless, Internet and telephony networks may face some substantive changes, and that “there is a very real possibility that by the close of 2011 one of the three networks may come to dominate the others and thereby change the telecommunications revenue picture completely.”
The study looks at three possible scenarios. In the first scenario, today’s current network will continue to “evolve along current trajectories;” the second scenario looks at how the Internet will dominate, and the third scenario suggests that wireless communications may eventually dominate. According to the company’s statement: “The study projects revenue and subscriber growth for each scenario over time.” One key finding of the research suggests that: “surprisingly, there are not tectonic shifts in revenue – though subscriber growth and profitability were indeed vastly different.”
The study factors in technology, business conditions, regulation, and competition. One interesting factor that may help shape the evolution of global networks is the “explosive growth” of subscriber demand in Asia and Africa; the acceptance of mobile communications and the anticipated urge in video on networks are also considered.
The report assumes that no single scenario will evolve as a pure play, and it concludes that the reality in 2011 will likely be shaped by some part of all three scenarios.
We find it interesting that two out of three scenarios are based on convergence (either at the IP level using the Internet or through fixed-mobile convergence). We’re certainly not brave enough to try and pick a “winner” technology, rather, the only thing we’re ready to endorse is that these networks are converging and that the many factors considered in this study will only hasten the evolution.
For more on the study, including an executive summary and outline, please click here.
Next week, VoIP and “lawful intercept”.
