* Research firm expects resurgence in fiber optics this year
A market research firm is predicting a sharp turnaround in the deployment of fiber optics this year after three years of declines.
KMI Research, which specializes in fiber optics, recently said fiber deployment would rise 25%, from 8.9 million fiber kilometers in 2003 to 11.2 million this year. Last year it had fallen 17%.
The firm noted that last year it had predicted a rise of 8% in deployments for 2004.
A lot of this growth is happening not in the local area (the focus of this newsletter), but instead in wide-area and metropolitan-area deployments. Still, KMI expects a spike this year in campus and private network deployments of single-mode fiber, from 750,000 kilometers last year to 900,000 this year – and in 2005, KMI expects the number to drop back down to 700,000. Interestingly, multimode deployments are expected to go from 900,000 fiber kilometers last year to 775,000 this year.
Utilities and state governments are driving some of the growth, as they go from 830,000 fiber kilometers in 2003 to 975,000 this year and possibly 1.2 million next year.
The biggest segment, however, is the local exchange carriers (Bell and non-Bell), as fiber-to-the-premises projects really take hold. These deployments represented more than 3.1 million fiber kilometers in 2003 and are expected to rise to 4.6 million this year. Verizon currently has a big fiber deployment push under way and that no doubt has something to do with the increase.
Independent local exchange carriers account for 44% of fiber demand this year; by 2007, KMI says, they will account for more like 60%.
