We made 10 predictions this time last year, so it’s time to see how we did. In the Jan. 10 issue, we’ll set our sights on 2005.
• We jumped the gun with our prediction that the major e-mail vendors would revise their interfaces to incorporate instant messaging and links to the voice world. But the presence push did lead to some strategic alliances, including Microsoft linking Live Communications Server with consumer services from MSN, AOL and Yahoo.
• As predicted, questions about wireless LAN security eased as the 802.11i security standard was finalized. But instead of opening a floodgate, it has only resulted in steady growth.
• We called for continued growth in blades and more noise about 64-bit architectures as companies shift to scalable, low-cost systems built with commodity components. Both spot on.
• Flat wrong on our prediction that IBM would knuckle under and pay off SCO. If anything, the SCO position seems weaker than ever. But we were right that Linux gains would make Microsoft increasingly nervous.
• In the land of VoIP, we said vendors would start to focus on applications, and while there has been more talk about that, the real story was about landmark VoIP deals. Ford, Boeing, Bank of America and Lloyds of London together will install three times the number of IP phones than were shipped worldwide in 2003, according to IDC.
• Despite our prediction that no large telecom deals would go down in ’04, AT&T sold off its wireless business to Cingular, and Sprint and Nextel signed a $70 billion blockbuster merger. Oh well.
• We had predicted Cisco’s Network Admission Control (NAC) program, which blocks network access if desktops don’t have updated virus software, would stumble because it isn’t based on standards. That proved an obstacle to adoption, as did the 2004 introduction of the Microsoft Network Access Protection (NAP), a competing initiative. But the year ended with Cisco and Microsoft vowing to work together to combine NAC and NAP, and that could spur demand.
• Offshoring would trip up, we said, as the downsides were exposed in ’04. While there has been more focus on the negatives, offshoring indeed grew. But it also became a political hot potato, with 12 states – including Connecticut and Florida – moving to block offshoring of state contracts.
• We said utility computing is years away, and it still is. But we expected more concrete announcements in ’04. If anything, this year saw the big vendors concede that what you can buy today is a far cry from the vision they pitch.
• And finally, we predicted site-to-site VPNs would gain acceptance as a frame alternative. The real story is customers are replacing frame with Multi-protocol Label Switch-based services that don’t carry fees for individual virtual circuits. That’s the future.
