* Linux thrives on the desktop but may struggle with security
Linux starts off the new year looking better than ever, but not without its challenges. Today, we’re dusting off the crystal ball and taking a look at what users of the open-source operating system might expect this year.
* The year of the desktop
Many large European government bodies began migrating to Linux and open-source software on the desktop in 2004. Expect this trend to carry over stateside with corporations, universities and government agencies moving to Linux in 2005. AT&T has said it is looking into Linux desktops as a corporate standard, while Pennsylvania State University says it wants to dump Internet Explorer for Firefox Web browsers. IT managers will embrace Linux desktops to cut costs and improve security.
* Linux grows in blades
IDC says Linux accounted for around half of the blade servers shipped in the third quarter of 2004, however, blades accounted for less than 10% of the entire server market. Expect both of those numbers to grow. As users seek ways to consolidate multiple servers into smaller, more manageable spaces, Linux blades will become the weapon of choice for corporate data center managers.
* Novell/SuSE vs. Red Hat
Expect more heated competition between Novell/SuSE and Red Hat. Red Hat, long the dominant Linux distro, will start to get a run for its money as enterprise mainstay Novell puts more emphasis, marketing and developers behind its SuSE Linux offerings. Unfortunately, this could mean smaller Linux versions become more marginalized in U.S. enterprises.
* Microsoft strikes back
As Linux continued to make gains in revenue and market share in 2004, Microsoft floated its Windows XP Starter Edition in some emerging markets overseas. If Linux begins to make a serious run at Microsoft’s U.S. installed base of corporate desktops, look for Microsoft to counter with a state-side version of this product and possibly a server operating system version for SMBs, which are increasingly turning to Linux as they throw out old Windows NT platforms.
* Linux security issues could be complicated
With Linux popularity growing, expect to see more Linux-targeted worms, viruses and malware emerge. While the open-source community has proven to be responsive in patching security holes in Linux, the decentralized nature of how Linux updates are reviewed and released could become an issue if more threats to the code emerge.
