Last week we reviewed our 2004 predictions (we only got about 50% right this time around), and now it’s time to turn our gaze on this new year.
Last week we reviewed our 2004 predictions (we only got about 50% right this time around), and now it’s time to turn our gaze on this new year.
• As companies use component architectures to build applications, operations headaches are beginning to emerge. The problem: Simple components are easy to build and easy to bolt into larger apps, but if the little pieces don’t go through the usual quality checks the process can result in a house of cards. Look for companies to review core processes and reach for new tools.
• The utility computing vision will require standardizing on management tools from a single vendor, or a strategic set of five or fewer vendors with integrated wares. The big management guns – CA, BMC, HP and IBM – recognize that and went on an acquisition binge last year. Now they’re teaming with players like Cisco. Expect more acquisitions and partnerships.
• An increasing awareness of the dangers of spyware will distinguish 2005 as the first year businesses make substantial purchases for desktop protection. Microsoft – which just acquired anti-spyware company Giant – will push into the market, while the anti-virus crowd, including McAfee and Trend Micro, will make more noise about their new protection tools.
• With 10G Ethernet prices coming down and bandwidth demands increasing, 10G Ethernet adoption will take off as companies replace Gigabit backbones installed four or five years ago. The emergence of 10G NICs for servers and storage systems also will spur adoption.
• LAN switches will take on more tasks as vendors integrate functions such as IDS, IPS, anti-virus, anti-spam and Wi-Fi. Also, look for new switch entrants touting innovative switch designs.
• Complying with Sarbanes-Oxley and other regulations has been painful and time-consuming. Companies are looking for ways to automate the compliance process. Look for new tools, even new vendors, to emerge.
• Consolidation comes in waves, so expect the recent Symantec/Veritas and Sprint/Nextel deals to create ripples in those, and adjacent, markets. Not all of the resulting activity will make sense.
• Huge VoIP deals were signed in 2004, and these won’t backfire like some of the earlier deals (remember Merrill?). Look for more major contracts and the big carriers to roll out significant IP Centrex services.
• The open source movement got a boost from the success of FireFox last year. Look for that to ignite interest in still other open source applications. The movement isn’t just about Linux any more.
• Wi-Fi is easy and handy, but shared 10M bits/sec pipes just don’t cut it. Vendors are rolling out pre-802.11n 100M-plus bit/sec products, but early tools won’t be interoperable and won’t comply with the ultimate Wi-Fi standard, which isn’t expected to be ratified for a few years. That won’t stop the marketing machines.
