If the mood of more than 600 technology executives, investors and media members that gathered at Demo 2004 last month is any indication, the technology market is on the rebound. After a long, hard 36 months, there is energy, excitement and enthusiasm in the marketplace again. But unlike the heyday of the Internet boom, this exuberance is rational, tempered with reality and reason.
There is good reason to be excited. The technology industry is strong. It is poised for new growth fueled by exciting innovation. If you study the market cycles and look at the basic building blocks for product development and company building, it is clear that the fundamentals are in place that will lead to a dynamic, exciting and innovative marketplace in the years to come.
Companies are moving judiciously into markets, developing products and technologies that are driven by customer need and business requirements. Rather than a rush to market, there is a rush to be relevant to customers. Many of the companies that debuted at Demo 2004 launched their products with key customers in place. These products are stable, refined by in-market experience and at work in the world. In turn, these quality products are erasing buyer cynicism borne of too many unfulfilled promises and so little return on boom-era investments of time, money, energy and hope.
Some have argued that the slowdown of the past 36 months has “crushed one entire cycle of innovation.” This could not be further from the truth. Over the past three years, Demo ushered more than 300 innovative products to market. These products, along with the tempering of entrepreneurs and technology adopters, have set the stage for the next wave of computing by creating a broad set of technology commodities and market readiness on which to build new applications and businesses.
What does this next wave look like? There are clues, but there is no true road map. Beyond the promise of Moore’s Law and the laws of physics and economics of volume, there never has been a clear view. Whether the market is riding irrational exuberance or scuttling among the fallout of a bursting bubble, all we can ever do is keep on innovating in business and technology.
You hold the future. You will invent and innovate. You will buy and use new products – or you won’t. Your adoption of technology will encourage or defeat initiatives that explore new concepts enabled by the building blocks that have fallen into place these past few years. The months ahead hold promise and change – and we can’t really tell what lies ahead. But one thing is clear: The next wave has begun to build. We are at the beginning of a new and exciting phase of innovation that will drive the economic cycles for the next 20 years, just as the PC revolution drove the IT market in the past.
Shipley is executive producer of the Demo Conferences and a veteran technology watcher. She can be reached at chris@cshipley.com.
