The Federal Trade Commission will host three days of hearings starting Monday that are billed “Protecting Consumers in the Next Tech-ade” — a reprise of a similar FTC event held a decade ago that attendees still credit with having provided prescient guidance to regulators.
You can be the judge of that in a moment.
“The discussions that took place at the (1995) hearings introduced the FTC to the full potential of many technological breakthroughs and shaped the Bureau of Consumer Protection’s agenda for years to come,” according to this entry on an FTC blog set up to promote next week’s gathering at George Washington University. “To this day, many of the FTC’s key players credit the event with helping the agency to modernize its understanding of consumer protection issues.”
So how accurate was the crystal ball back then? You can read the full 95-page report here, or take a look at the handful of items I have cherry-picked:
1995: “If a negative image of telemarketing gets lodged in the public mind, consumers may stop responding to telemarketing solicitations. Support may grow for the same kinds of strict telemarketing laws and regulations that some foreign governments have.”
With the benefit of perfect hindsight, we might call that one an understatement. If there was a hint of the coming “Do Not Call” revolution it was not apparent from the transcript.
1995: “From the consumer perspective, 1995 was the year the Internet ‘arrived.’ More affordable high-speed multimedia home computers, faster modems and more sophisticated software compress the time needed to access information and download files. As technology advances, Web sites will go beyond text, graphics and photos to incorporate audio and video clips.”
Had they invited me to speak I would have told them that in three years a search engine company called Google would emerge, rise to unimaginable dominance, and in 2006 pay $1.6 billion for a bunch of those video clips. Wasn’t it obvious?
1995: “It doesn’t take much to set up a base of operation on the World Wide Web: a personal computer, a modem, a little software — all of which can be bought new for under $1,000 — and an Internet connection, which costs $30.”
Can’t you just see all those heads shaking in amazement at that “under 1,000” figure.
1995: “Today’s electronic consumers have little control over unsolicited postings that flood electronic mail boxes, newsgroups, or other bulletin boards. If not addressed, such ‘spamming’ practices could hinder the healthy growth of the Internet.”
They’ve certainly not hindered a healthy growth of the anti-spam industry.
1995: “Most major advertisers have Web pages on the Internet, and many include their Web site addresses in their TV and print ads. In turn, some advertising agencies have entered the world of interactive advertising, creating Web sites and CD-ROMs, programming for online service providers, and even advertising in ‘digitzines’ (online or CD-ROM magazines.’ “
Two things strike me about that passage: the overall quaintness, to be certain, but also the memory of hearing TV newscasters deliver those early URLs as though they were speaking Sanskrit.
1995: “The commercial health of cyberspace will turn on consumer confidence. Doubts and insecurities could keep people away, capping the growth of the medium. Lawlessness, or even the threat of lawlessness, could dramatically limit the usefulness of the Internet to consumers.”
So a decade later we’ve got doubts, insecurities, lawlessness and the ever-present threat of more lawlessness, yet the sky appears glued firmly to the heavens. Guess the question is: Have we just been lucky?
1995: “Privacy concerns, too, may be addressed before they reach major proportions.”
Oopsy, too late.
It wasn’t all about the ‘Net back then, of course.
1995: “Nine out of 10 households had remote controls for the their televisions in 1995; more than eight out of 10 had video cassette recorders.”
A decade later and that sentence seems to scream out for a couple of “onlys.”
1995: “The average household received 41 channels in 1995 — 34 more than in 1965.”
Oh, the humanity.
