20% growth targets blow past rivals' 12% to 17% goals
Juniper set ambitious growth targets at its analyst day this week – targets that surpass Cisco’s 12% to 17% annual growth objectives and undoubtedly rely on stealing market share from its rival. Juniper forecasts revenue growing at about a 20% compounded annual rate over the next 3-5 years, surpassing the 18% CAGR it’s experienced over the past 8 years.
Of that, Juniper expects service provider to grow at a compounded annual rate of 18% to 20% and enterprise 25% to 30% over that period. Investment firm UBS believes enterprise may be the most achievable given Juniper’s low market share, though UBS believes the overall targets to be “a bit high.”
Oppenheimer & Co. also views enterprise as having the most upside for Juniper:
We expect Juniper to deliver on these targets through enterprise traction and share gains. This implies a bigger revenue mix shift to enterprise (~40% vs. ~34% in 2009).
Juniper also addressed concerns about its mobility and data center strategies, and the convergence of IP and optical networking. In mobility, revenues from its Project Falcon 3G/4G enhanced packet core initiative are expected in 2011, with trials staring in the fourth quarter of this year. Likewise, revenue from the Project Stratus data center and cloud computing switching program are also expected in 2011 though UBS expects initial hardware implementations to emerge later this quarter.
With regard to IP/optical convergence, Juniper does not seem to think its routers are under any immediate threat from optical transport systems with integrated switching or routing intelligence. The company plans to scale performance and broaden features through ASICs and JUNOS extensions, while committing to MPLS for core applications. States UBS in a bulletin on Juniper’s analyst conference:
Our view of (optical) is somewhat consistent with Juniper’s-we do not see it impacting
routing for at least 2 yrs.
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