Winning the battle - and losing the war
Don’t get me wrong, there’s a lot to like in the latest from Google. This is one of the most powerful handsets available, thanks to the Qualcomm SnapDragron processor. I like the USB and SD expansion ports. The OLED screen is the latest and greatest, and it’s gorgeous. It’s huge at CES. When Verizon has it, I’ll consider it as a replacement for the Samsung Omnia I currently use. We certainly have here a worthy competitor to the iPhone, although, of course, there is still no such thing as an iPhone killer. Too bad about the Droids, but, then, most handsets deem to have a shelf life that can be measured in weeks.
Much has been made of the fact that the phone is available direct, without a contract. While I continue to believe this should be the norm if not the law, it’s not a big deal. Most people will, I think, opt for the contract, save a few hundred bucks, and, hey, they need a carrier so why not commit to one? But there is a lot of appeal in being able to swap SIMs and even dump the phone altogether as soon as the next one comes out.
But here’s the problem. There’s an old rule in business, which is never compete with your customers, and especially your OEMs. If I’m building a handset based on Android, I have to be thinking now: jeez, my key OS supplier is competing with me. Suppose they decide to build cool features into their next version of the OS that I won’t get? Shouldn’t I be thinking about a truly vendor-independent version of Linux?
As I have noted in the past, there is no reason to believe that Android will be the Linux for handsets, any more than we should think that Chrome OS will be the Linux for PCs. Right now that latter spot is held by Ubuntu, and I don’t expect that to change. But one needs to look at anything Google announces with a modicum of healthy skepticism at best. Google just won a battle – but what about the war, and sticking to the goals of their primary business?
Sure, Google is the alternative to Microsoft, and I simply can’t stand Microsoft any longer. I still think Windows Mobile is toast. But Google’s business isn’t operating systems or handsets. Indeed, I look at the Nexus One as the latest and greatest from HTC, one of the most innovative and competent handsets manufacturers on the planet, and not as a product of Google. Rather, Google’s business is advertising, and you and I are the products they really sell. Now, I personally dislike having my every move online watched. Using a browser, they really can’t connect me to all that much. And, after all, I have a choice of browsers, and there’s no way Google can know everything I do regardless. But a handset – well, that’s another story. Handsets are very personal and it won’t be long before Google knows everything about anyone who uses one of their handsets. Is that bad? Such is a political question with a political answer, so let’s leave that that for now.
And, for now, the cautionary note here is that Google may be shooting itself in the foot WRT competing in the mobile space. There’s no reason to believe that Android will be the Linux, and quite the opposite may turn out to be the case. The Nexus One is this week’s cool new phone, but, again given that handset lifespans are measured in weeks, there’s no reason to believe that it is as big a game changer as the iPhone. And, speaking of Apple, I expect them to respond with a barrage of new products this year. And, if the politics is at the forefront of your decision-making process, Apple still looks like the better choice regardless. But stay tuned – Apple’s purchase of mobile advertiser Quattro Wireless may narrow the differences in strategy significantly.
