* CIR on 40Gbps equipment
By one indication, the market for 40Gbps gear is doing fine, thank you very much. Telecom equipment makers aren’t letting up on gear running at that speed, and they plan to purchase plenty more 40Gbps transponders and components, according to market researcher CIR.
By 2012, CIR says, those equipment manufacturers will purchase $500 million worth of 40Gbps components for WAN switches and so forth.
What is interesting about that prediction is that much of the excitement in the market has been around 10Gbps, and even 100Gbps as we start to look at the next generation of Ethernet. The idea of going to 40Gbps as an interim step for Ethernet was bandied about, but ultimately rejected by the IEEE study group that was considering the question.
As CIR writes:
“Having run the gamut from over hyped ‘next big thing’ to dead and buried, 40Gbps has once again emerged as a topic of conversation in the market. The difference today is that real deployments are beginning to happen and advances in technology and the availability of 40G transponders have made the technology into something worth considering.”
Still, CIR says it doesn’t expect industry-wide rollout of 40Gbps until 2010. And it says that the speed won’t reach the prominence of 10Gbps until at least 2015, if then.
CIR says 40Gbps will get some traction through cost improvements and innovations. For example, advanced optical modulation schemes and improved dispersion compensation have been developed, and CIR says these factors make 40Gbps transmission over existing networks much more practical.
The research firm also says that although large component manufacturers have stayed on the sidelines, they could easily enter the market through acquisitions of smaller 40Gbps companies as they see volumes of 40Gbps components rise.
