* Survey gives glimpse into how successful different VoIP technologies might be
Today we’d like to suggest a predictor of sorts for the ultimate success of the various voice-over-IP technologies.
In the last newsletter, we discussed how extensively various flavors of VoIP products are already deployed, according to a survey that was used to produce Steve’s VoIP State-of-the-Market Report. In particular, the survey looks at the current implementations and future plans for IP PBXs, IP-enabled traditional PBXs, voice-enabled routers, IP phones, soft phones, VoIP quality management and troubleshooting systems, and IP Centrex. We’re sharing some details that didn’t make it into the formal report.
We’ll assign a numeric weight to the various available responses: Currently Using (2), Planning to use before the end of 2004 (3), Planning to use after 2004 (1), and No plans to use (0). No points will be assigned for responses indicating “don’t know” as well.
Our thinking behind this rating is that having plans to implement within the next 18 months is actually a stronger indicator than current use. Current use doesn’t necessarily indicate continued use, so it might be roughly equivalent to eventual plans for use. So the responses were weighted by multiplying these “success indicators” by the percentage of respondents indicating these plans.
By this analysis, IP PBXs and IP-enabled traditional PBXs are in a dead heat with a rating of 148 and 143, respectively. Combined, they certainly have a bright future. The overall winner by this methodology is VoIP quality management and troubleshooting systems with a rating of 198, followed by IP phones (194) and soft phones (183). Interestingly, voice-enabled routers hang in strongly with a rating of 162, slightly edging out their individual counterparts in the PBX market.
Overall, the weakest showing was clearly – and not surprisingly – the IP Centrex market. With an overall rating of 87, its prediction is just slightly more than half as high as its weakest counterparts.
