‘Splaining real math is always tricky because it is almost always counterintuitive. So, short of quantum physics and multi-dimensional tensor calculus what math topic is remarkably tricky to understand? Try Bayes theorem.
No, I’m not going to attempt an explanation of the work of the Reverend Bayes but I am going to point you to a really good introduction by Eliezer Yudkowsky.
Yudkowsky’s “An Intuitive Explanation of Bayesian Reasoning” begins by recognizing that Bayes Theorem is a mother to grasp and contends that “Here you will find an attempt to offer an intuitive explanation of Bayesian reasoning – an excruciatingly gentle introduction that invokes all the human ways of grasping numbers, from natural frequencies to spatial visualization. The intent is to convey, not abstract rules for manipulating numbers, but what the numbers mean, and why the rules are what they are (and cannot possibly be anything else). When you are finished reading this page, you will see Bayesian problems in your dreams.”
Another related and useful resource on likelihood ratios is from Children’s Mercy Hospital.
In IT Bayes theorem has many applications from Bayesian filtering of spam to building and evaluating authentication systems.
I’d say “enjoy” but you’ll probably need aspirin at some point.
