One gets the sense that the world’s Android application developers are holding their collective breath, waiting for Google to open the Android Market up to non-free applications. Any number of applications in the Market today are listed as “beta” or “trial” or something, and it feels like a number of them are simply using that as a way to get eyeballs now while still being able to charge in the future. And, of course, any discussion of why the Android Market only has so many applications winds up with at least one comment about “once you can charge for apps, there will be a huge increase”.
I have little doubt that’s true. However, that’s also sad.
It’s sad that the Android Market is considered by many to be the gatekeeper of what is and is not available for Android. With the App Store, iPhone developers have no choice: use the App Store or go home. Android, on the other hand, lets you distribute through the Market, or through alternative markets (e.g., AndAppStore, SlideME, Voeveo), or through your own Web site. With any outlet other than the Market, you can charge what you want, by any means you want (up-front fee, subscription, free with fee-based add-ons, etc.), while the Market contains terms that will greatly restrict the pricing models you can use.
One gets the sense that developers think the Android Market will make or break their business, to the point that everything else can remain on hold until the Market is ready. In effect, everyone is “waiting for Goodot” (with apologies to the late Samuel Beckett).
It’s not like releasing an application to the iPhone App Store is a ticket to stardom. Some developers, particularly in the early days, made a tidy sum, but that had a bit of a “gold rush” feel to it. Certainly, there are developers who make significant money even today. But the iPhone App Store is now big enough that “serious money” is far from assured for any given app, particularly if it never makes it into one of the most-popular-app lists. In other words, selling iPhone apps is no different than selling just about anything else: you need a business model, a marketing plan that works in concert with the business model, etc. Listing an app on the App Store is necessary but not sufficient to make money.
This is not to say that developing for Android will be a money-losing proposition — far from it. However, the Android Market is not a gold-plated pathway to success, nor is its current free-apps-only policy a barrier. You still need a model for how to make money from an Android app, and a marketing plan that will accentuate that model, to go along with your app. Yes, for a few weeks, once the Android Market payment model goes live, there will be an Android-style “gold rush”, and people will make one-time money off of it. But you probably will not be able to retire based on the proceeds, so it may be worth your time to think a bit about life after the Market.
In the coming months, I will be writing posts in the Monetizing Droids series, discussing various business models that have been used with the iPhone App Store and related markets, and depicting how those strategies might work with Android.
