I’m noticing a major uptick in reporting on computer security issues in the press, both mainstream and computer-related. Which makes me wonder: Are things getting worse or is the world just starting to figure out that things are already really bad?
This raises two questions: If things are getting worse, how much worse will they get and if things are already really bad, how bad are they? Reality probably lies somewhere in between: Security has been so negelected particularly in the consumer world so we have huge pools of viruses, armies of bots, and legions of hacked machines and the majority of the owners of these computers are blissfully unaware of having compromised systems. On the other hand the increasing exposure of security in the media is creating an on-line culture that can’t help but know about the issues and take action. At the same time new problems are appearing — new malware and new exploits. As end users and their computers become more aware and skilled in dealing with security threats have to become far more sophisticated to work. I would guess that computers are exposed to an ongoing level of security threats and that they collectively maintain a rough level of immunity against “everyday” attacks. Think of it like our bodies which are continuously assaulted by bacteria and viruses and our immune systems, for the most part, prevent these attackers from gaining a foothold (or pseudopod hold). On the ‘Net what we have to watch out for is the Omega Threat, a threat so unusual and therefore unexpected that it can short circuit and end run the Internet’s general immune system. What would the Omega Threat look like? Well, consider the characteristics of really sucessful biological viruses: They are distibuted by vectors that are hard to avoid; they are slow to show themselves; they are deeply entwined with their host’s systems; and they mutate. But what if humans have little or nothing to do with the Omega Threat? What if a virus in the wild “mutates”? Or perhaps the Omage Threat will be an emergent property of systems on the ‘Net? This may sound like science fiction but large, complex systems always have unpredictable behaviors and effects. In the the real world we’ve seen the rise of HIV, avian ‘flu, and a littany of other health threats that have come about simply because of chance interactions. Why should the ‘Net be any different?
