According to news reports out of London this morning, a full 12% of British Internet users were victimized by online fraud last year to the tune of an average loss of $1,715. Just one year.
Alarming numbers from an alarming survey?
No, bloody unlikely, it says here; we’re much more likely to be talking statistical rubbish.
Of course, it’s important to note that I have nothing upon which to base that judgment except my own gut and years of experience reading these alarmist survey reports.
This one was conducted YouGov for Get Safe Online, a collaborative effort by the British government, police and industry. About 2,400 individuals were surveyed, according to the news reports, but there is no information on the organization’s site, which makes judging methodology difficult. (Let’s just say I smell a self-selected online survey here.)
(Update: The BBC apparently played a role in this survey. Details here.)
(Update 2: According to this British news report, the survey sponsors are claiming that 3.5 million people were “plagued by Internet fraud last year.” If that number is being extrapolated from the 12%, my calculator (always a dangerous weapon) pegs the total haul siphoned out of the UK economy at a tick over $6 billion. … Rubbish.)
Among the results:
“Six percent had suffered fraud while shopping online, four percent had experienced general fraud and three percent were subject to bank or credit card crime,” according to the news story.
Fewer than half believed themselves responsible for their online safety, which was reflected in another finding that almost half did not use anti-spyware software.
So Internet users are careless. No headline there.
“We need users to take the same basic precautions in using the Internet as they would when making transactions in the high street, such as not sharing your bank details or passwords,” said Cabinet Office minister Pat McFadden.
Which brings us back to those 12% and $1,715 figures: If an accurate representation of the public at large – and I’m not buying – exactly how long would an online fraud rate of that breadth and magnitude take to kill of online commerce entirely? Think about the question another way: If you had a 1 in 8 chance of being robbed of $1,715 at the local mall, how long would it take you to decide that shopping at the mall wasn’t all that necessary.
Right.
I’m not exactly sure what these alarmist surveys are actually measuring, but my guess is that a) they’re attracting victims at a far greater rate than those who are careful/fortunate; b) they’re sweeping into the broad category of “online fraud” just about any banking or credit-card transaction that turns out badly, including honest mistakes; and, c) they’re certainly going to take a toll on consumer confidence over the long run.
The last one scares me even if the survey doesn’t.
