The public network will continue to gain speed. In IDC’s predictions for IT advancements in the coming year, the research firm says to expect “massive, aggressive” network buildouts.
The public network will continue to gain speed. In IDC’s predictions for IT advancements in the coming year, the research firm says to expect “massive, aggressive” network buildouts.
Fixed broadband will continue its strong migration to fiber optics. IDC says that major players have already stated that they are looking to bring 100Mbps of bandwidth to people’s homes at reasonable prices. That means a lot of fiber, either fiber to the home or fiber to the neighborhood.
IDC predicts that almost 2 million more homes will have fiber connections to the Internet, bringing the total penetration of fiber to 10% of consumers. IDC also says fiber broadband subscribers will represent 40% of “net-new” subscriber growth in 2010, and 75% of that growth by 2013.
There are several drivers for this broadband buildout, certainly – not the least of which are the rapid expansion of online video and cloud-based services. But one interesting driver is the rapid growth of mobile devices and applications. Speed is the edge that the wired networks have over the mobile networks, and it is an edge that they must work at to maintain.
IDC cautions that 4G wireless networks will be overhyped in 2010, as the true impact of 4G will not be felt next year. In fact, just 0.01% of the mobile phones that will ship next year will be 4G-capable. However, 3G wireless is another story, and IDC expects the steady migration to 3G to continue.
Also, it will be interesting to see how built-in wireless connectivity evolves. The ability of the Amazon Kindle to connect wirelessly for book downloads is a really cool concept. IDC notes that it creates interesting opportunities for wireless carriers, but without the branding, it’s easy for the device manufacturer (in this case, Amazon) to switch carriers.
Will we see more wireless devices with the services under the covers? Will Apple’s “iPad” be one of them? Stay tuned.
