Predicts that global IP traffic will increase fivefold by 2013
Cisco has released an update to their Visual Networking Index with some interesting projections on IP traffic over the next several years. The study is based on Cisco’s analysis and modeling of multiple analysts’ forecasts and it predicts that global IP traffic will increase fivefold by 2013 to two-thirds of a zettabyte. (A zettabyte is a trillion gigabytes.) Much of the growth will come from interactive media and video content delivered across multiple devices.
Cisco has released an update to their Visual Networking Index with some interesting projections on IP traffic over the next several years. The study is based on Cisco’s analysis and modeling of multiple analysts’ forecasts and it predicts that global IP traffic will increase fivefold by 2013 to two-thirds of a zettabyte. (A zettabyte is a trillion gigabytes.) Much of the growth will come from interactive media and video content delivered across multiple devices.
On the video front, Cisco predicts that by 2010 Internet video traffic volumes will surpass peer-to-peer and by 2013, Internet video will be 700 times what the U. S. backbone was in 2000. Consumer-oriented video will account for almost 60% of all consumer Internet traffic by 2013 and the sum of all forms of video will be over 90%. From 2009, consumer traffic accounts for 70% of the Internet, growing slightly as a percentage through 2013.
Mobile IP traffic will increase by a compounded annual growth rate of 131% from 2008 to 2013, also driven largely by video, according to the study. Cisco predicts that by 2013 mobile audio will account for 7% of mobile traffic, followed by P2P traffic at 10% and mobile data at 19%; mobile video be responsible for 64% of mobile traffic by 2013.
Finally, Cisco points out that “hyperconnectivity” is a big contributor to Internet traffic growth based on two factors: the increasing trend for users to multitask (thereby using multiple IP sessions at the same time) and the uptick in “passive networking.” Passive networking occurs with, for example, online backup, software updates and GPS tracking. Between active multitasking and passive networking, Cisco estimates by 2013 one “network year” will be equivalent to two “solar years.”
Go here if you want to know more about the Cisco study details or methodology, manipulate some of the data views using the Cisco VNI Pulse resources, or track how personal use compares to generic usage trends.
