Grant Gross
Senior Writer

Next Bill Gates may come from outside U.S., poll says

News
Dec 20, 20063 mins

Just 21% of U.S. residents believe the next Bill Gates will come from their country, according to a new survey on Internet attitudes released Wednesday.

About 27% of respondents said they believed the next wildly successful technology entrepreneur will come from China, and another 22% said Japan, according to the poll, conducted earlier this month by polling firm Zogby International and public-relations firm 463 Communications, both based in Washington, D.C.

It’s not surprising that only a fifth of respondents chose the United States as the home of the founder of the next Microsoft, said Tom Galvin, a partner in 463. Most U.S. residents seem to understand that the United States competes in a global economy, he said.

“It doesn’t mean that the United States is slipping, it’s that other countries are catching up,” Galvin said. “Americans have a very firm and sophisticated understand of the competitiveness we’re dealing with. I don’t think they resent it, but they want to know what we’re going to do about it.”

It was a bit curious that only 13% of respondents chose India as incubator of the next Gates, Galvin said.

The survey, of 1,203 U.S. adults, also compared respondents’ attitudes about the Internet compared to earlier technologies.

Asked what would make it harder for you to work, your car not starting, or the loss of Internet and e-mail access, an overwhelming 78% sided with the car, and only 10% chose the Internet. When Galvin has asked the same question of friends in the public-transportation friendly Washington area, the responses ran about 50-50, he said. Eight percent of respondents chose the “neither/other” option.

“I didn’t think the Internet was going to beat [the car], but I thought it was going to compete,” he said.

The Internet fared better against the printing press. Asked which was the greater invention, 32% of respondents said the Internet, while 65% said the printing press. “It’s going to be one of the interesting debates we’re going to have over the next several years,” Galvin said.

But respondents said they still prefer the evening news over citizen-created videos. Seventy percent said they prefer to watch the news to get information on an event, while only about 20% chose a citizen video.

Asked whether the average 12-year-old or the average member of the U.S. Congress knew more about the Internet, the respondents voted heavily against the politicians. Eighty-three percent chose the 12-year-old, and only 10% chose Congress.

Zogby and 463 plan to continue doing the surveys periodically, Galvin said. The survey had a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points.

Grant Gross

Grant Gross, a senior writer at CIO, is a long-time IT journalist who has focused on AI, enterprise technology, and tech policy. He previously served as Washington, D.C., correspondent and later senior editor at IDG News Service. Earlier in his career, he was managing editor at Linux.com and news editor at tech careers site Techies.com. As a tech policy expert, he has appeared on C-SPAN and the giant NTN24 Spanish-language cable news network. In the distant past, he worked as a reporter and editor at newspapers in Minnesota and the Dakotas. A finalist for Best Range of Work by a Single Author for both the Eddie Awards and the Neal Awards, Grant was recently recognized with an ASBPE Regional Silver award for his article “Agentic AI: Decisive, operational AI arrives in business.”

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