* Predictions can be way off
You’ll be reading – in newsletters, magazines, and blogs – a lot of predictions this month. Everyone, it seems, wants to be the first to tell you about something that’s going to happen later this year. Even I’m not immune, as a glance at this week’s Wired Windows column (see link below) will show you. I didn’t go too far out on a limb regarding Microsoft and Windows as I predicted that Microsoft, with no new operating systems due, would hammer heavily on licensing to even out the revenue stream.
But I’ve seen too many predictions over the years that, in hindsight, make the predictor look like an idiot. Each year from 1995 through 1998, someone would predict the end of the PC. It all started with Larry Ellison’s famous 1995 statement that the Wintel (Windows/Intel) PC was “ridiculous” – too complicated to use and too expensive for the average user. He predicted that a new device dubbed the “network computer,” using minimum hardware, with a small operating system and a Web browser would replace the PC on most workers’ desks. Many supposed pundits tripped all over each other to hop on this bandwagon. But three things happened that weren’t foreseen by Ellison or his fans:
1) When Larry spoke, Windows 3.1 was the shipping version. Windows got much better, more robust and more useful starting with Windows 95, which was launched at the end of that year.
2) Hardware got faster, smaller and cheaper very quickly. The $500 Network Computer (without a monitor, by the way) was looking to compete (when it finally shipped in 1997) with a $1,000 PC – which came with a monitor.
3) Few people actually said they wanted a network computer for themselves. Most were willing to buy them for “data entry clerks” and “word processing operators” but wanted the latest, most powerful Wintel machine for themselves. And so did their boss and the people who reported to them. There was no status in having a network computer.
So take the predictions with a grain or two of salt. Maybe one of the more outrageous ones will come to pass, but there’s no way of knowing which and there’s no way of knowing who is the best prognosticator. Still, I think I come close to the mark with mine and I’ll tell you why in the next issue. Hurry back!
