* The next solar maximum is expected around between 2010 and 2012
This is the third and last of a three-part summary of a recent National Research Council report Severe Space Weather Events – Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report. The entire report is available online free as a single PDF file with a simple registration of e-mail address, ZIP code and economic sector. Alternatively, the executive summary is available without registration and the entire text is freely readable through a Web browser.
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Some of the other key points about the threat to critical infrastructure from other parts of the report are summarized in the following bullet points (occasional quotes and paraphrasing, with a pointer to the pages in the PDF file):
• Solar storms can disable communications, surveillance and geopositioning satellites; e.g., the Telesat Anik E2 satellite was disabled in 1994 at a potential direct loss of $290 million for the satellite and indirect costs to about “100,000 home satellite dish owners [who] were required to manually re-point their dishes to E1 and other satellites. The satellite was restored following a US$50 million-C$70 million 6-month recovery effort.” [p 25]Figure 3.1 illustrates this view particularly clearly.power-generation grids, [p 54] causing major disruption to power distribution – and with costs at a potentially staggering level.Figure 7.2 shows an estimate of percent loss of EHV transformer capacity by state for a 4800 nT/min threat environment such as might occur during a storm of the magnitude of the May 1921 event. Such large-scale damage would likely lead to prolonged restoration and long-term shortages of supply to the affected regions.”
• Interference with satellites affects infrastructure directly but also indirectly because of the interconnectedness of our modern society[p 30];
• Polar routes have become cost-effective for commercial airlines because they are often shorter and have fewer headwinds than conventional routes;[p 51] however, aircraft are required to maintain constant radio communications with their parent company and with air-traffic control. Normally, the aircraft use geosynchronous satellites as relays, but those are not accessible above 82°N. Thus in the northern extremes, aircraft must use high frequency (HF) radio, which is blacked out by strong solar radio emissions.
• Unpredicted pulses caused by solar storms can actually fry transformers in electric
• “Recent analysis by Metatech estimates that more than 300 large EHV transformers would be exposed to levels of GIC sufficiently high to place these units at risk of failure or permanent damage requiring replacement.
• Radio-frequency interference with U.S. Air Force satellite and communications equipment caused by solar activity poses a significant threat to U.S. national security.[p 65]
The next solar maximum is expected around between 2010 and 2012 and that is expected to be “the most intense solar maximum in fifty years,” infrastructure managers should be preparing to cope with power interruptions, communications disruptions, and interference with geopositioning systems. After reading the report, which I strongly recommend to all infrastructure technology managers and their colleagues involved in business continuity planning (BCP), I have some obvious recommendations which I hope will stimulate readers to dig into this issue for themselves:
• Assign a specific named function (an employee and a backup) in your BCP team to monitor the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center every day to get a sense of when a large solar event is threatened.
• Electric power utilities should be preparing for emergency shutdowns to reduce voltage spikes that could damage their equipment.
• High-tech equipment users (that’s essentially everyone reading this column) should be prepared for interruptions to power from the grid; the usual calculations about the costs and benefits of standalone or shared power-generation units will determine whether organizations can realistically power themselves off the grid and for how long. (I have a 7.5 KVA gasoline generator that runs my entire house and office for 18 hours on three gallons of gasoline – and I keep a supply of 30 gallons of gasoline for the generator and my tractor at all times).
• All critical computer and communications equipment must be adequately buffered against electric voltage fluctuations by installation of suitable surge protectors (remember your telephone equipment too).
• Individual critical equipment units must be equipped with appropriate uninterruptable power supplies (UPS) allowing for data protection (immediate backups of changed files) and acceptable time for orderly shutdown. (I just upgraded my own UPS equipment by adding a second 1.5KVA unit, which includes power regulation, so that my main tower and my backup tower are on separate power supplies allowing for 20 to 30 minutes of operation off the grid.)
If you want to kick-start your discussions with your senior management on this topic, you may find a useful tool in a Fox TV interview with astrophysicist Professor Michio Kaku of City College of New York. The clip unfortunately includes the subtitle, “Solar Flares Could Mean the End of Life As We Know It;” I unrespectfully point out that improving Fox News’ quality of journalism would also change life as we know it.
But that’s a topic for a different venue.
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Join me online for three courses in October and November 2009 under the auspices of Security University. We will be meeting via conference call on Saturdays and Sundays for six hours each day and then for three hours in the evenings of Monday through Thursday. The courses are “Introduction to IA for Non-Technical Managers,” “Management of IA,” and “Cyberlaw for IA Professionals“. Each course will have the lectures and discussions recorded and available for download – and there will be a dedicated discussion group online for participants to discuss points and questions. See you online!
