In the United States, tomorrow (Thursday, Feb. 2 for most of you) is a semi-holiday called "Groundhog Day." I say "semi-holiday" but commemoration might also be a good description. No one gets the day off work, but everybody talks about it. Somewhat like Saint Patrick's Day (without the green beer).On Groundhog Day, a burrowing mammal (also known as a woodchuck) is tempted out of his cavern. Should the animal see its shadow, it's reckoned that it will return to its burrow for six more weeks of winter. But should it not see a shadow, then it will stay out and awake signaling that winter is over. You can check out\u00a0what happened this year by browsing here (but only after 6 a.m. EST Thursday Feb. 2).In just two weeks, I'll emerge from my burrow to sniff around the annual RSA Conference just down the road in San Jose. I'll also be looking for shadows and portents as a way of predicting what the identity "weather" will be like in the short term.I already know that there'll be more (and better) representation of identity product and service vendors than at any previous RSA conference. That does portent well for the industry. In light of Digital ID World moving back to the fall, RSA is left as the bellwether of the identity management space for the year. The two shows will serve nicely as bookends for the venerable Catalyst Conference, which the Burton Group puts on in June - this year in San Francisco. I think it's great that all three major conferences will take place within 30 miles of my office, although it does put a bigger burden on those of you in eastern North America.I expect that at RSA I'll still find a lingering emphasis on regulatory compliance, as well as a new round of strong and multi-factor authentication products, devices and services - especially for the financial industries. I'll be interested to see if any emphasis will be placed on federation technologies or if this is simmering on the back burner until all of Microsoft's pieces are in place.As always, I invite, welcome and expect your comments on the show both from those of you who attend as well as those who only read the press releases and news stories. And if you happen to spot me at San Jose's McEnery Convention Center and wish to swap stories over a cool refreshing beverage, just ask. I'm more than amenable!