One of the great things about being a columnist is that you get to critique everybody else’s performance from a safe vantage point. Except for once a year, when we pundits dust off last year’s predictions and see how well they stood up.
Herewith, an assessment of my calls for 2004:
Prediction No. 1: Last year I wrote, “At least one major Fortune 2000-caliber company will raise eyebrows by going with a cable company – rather than a telco – as its primary voice and data provider. Am I nuts? Maybe.”
Regarding my sanity, the jury’s still out. Regarding my prediction, the outcome’s pretty clear: Didn’t happen.
That said, the overall trend is still correct. In 2004, Cox Business Services announced deals with several midsize to large companies under which the company provides voice, data and Internet services. They include Legacy Bank and Big Dog Motorcycles in Kansas, and most notably Boeing Wichita (which makes parts for virtually every commercial Boeing airline and provides military aerospace support). Now Boeing is obviously a Fortune 2000 company, but Cox is hardly the “primary” carrier. I’ll award myself half a point.
Prediction No. 2: Speaking of convergence, there will be a significant event this year that marks it as “the year of convergence.” Dead on. The only problem is which event to pick. AT&T’s introduction of CallVantage? How about Vonage doubling from 200,000 to 400,000 subscribers? Or the fact that the FCC finally bestirred itself to consider the regulatory status of VoIP?
Prediction No. 3. “VoIP services will go mainstream.” Another solid hit – see above for examples. I’ll qualify that, though, by noting that enterprise customers are still justly skeptical of what carriers bring to the table around VoIP. The majority of installations I’ve looked at over the year have been in-house, augmented by support from vendors and consultants. (Carriers, make “strengthen your VoIP value proposition” a priority for 2005.)
Prediction No. 4: “Local loop prices will finally start to drop.” Hmm. It’s hard to claim unqualified success here. While many IT executives have gained significant savings through aggressive negotiation and the willingness to consider alternative bandwidth providers (cable companies and managed remote service providers among them), it’s not fair to say that local circuit costs have universally come down. I’ll give myself half a point.
Total score: 75%. Keeping in mind the famous Mark Twain quote about lies, damned lies and statistics, how good a score is that? I’ve taken engineering courses in which the grade curve was so steep that 75% would qualify for an A. But in most non-curve grading schemes, it’s a solid C.
That said, parapsychologists (like the guys at Duke University) who scientifically assess the ability of putative psychics to look into the future would rank this a home run – 300% better than you’d get by random guessing. With numbers like that, I should start prognosticating for profit – oh, wait, I already have.
